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one cannot speculate for very long about

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life in the 21st century without

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mentioning the computer

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since the early 1940s its amazing

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development

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has influenced our discoveries our

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progress our knowledge and most of all

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the way we think

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by looking ahead to the future of

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computing

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we can glimpse our own future

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and in thinking about the machines of

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tomorrow we must also ask ourselves

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questions like

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where do we want to be

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what kind of society do we want what do

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we want to do

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what changes must we make

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just as

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sharing a network amplifies the power

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and intelligence of individual computers

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so too dialogue amplifies and extends

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human vision

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with this in mind we at the lewis

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research center

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offer our hopes and our dreams about the

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future of computing

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by sharing just a few of the many

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diverse perspectives that exist

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we hope

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to begin a provocative chain of thought

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that begins with you

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the viewer of this dialogue

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i think

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everything's going to come down to to

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information and communication computers

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today are about the same stage that the

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automobile was in about 1915 or so and

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the networks are going to have to expand

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in the same way that the highway system

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has expanded since then the most

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important component

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of division of the future

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is the emerging

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information super highway

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operate at 2.4

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gigabits per second

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that's 2.4 almost two and a half

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thousand million

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bits per second

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this highway will have

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entrance and exit ramps that will reach

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into every facet of your life

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this highway

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unlike the concrete highway that carries

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your car

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will be composed

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of fiber optics

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i just kind of picture that that most

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people will just have

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kind of the equivalent to a to a hand

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calculator that will just patch them

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into the local network wherever they

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happen to be just because of their

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their presence to it in the future i

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think 30 years from now you'll see a

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combination of a telephone and a

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computer probably in

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in 20 or 30 years

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everyone will have a pc

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then like we carry around credit cards

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now

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maybe they'll even be that small

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i remember looking at the cartoon the

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jetsons and for some reason i have in my

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vision that eventually that would

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actually happen to where computers would

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be everywhere something that part of you

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will respond to you it will respond to

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voice commands we respond to motion

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we'll respond to video

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it will be an extension of you as a

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human being

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it'll just be all around us and we won't

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even think about it anymore

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i think the classroom of the future

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won't be in one place

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we've all heard about

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distance learning

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in most aspects this is still

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in pilot project form

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i imagine with the super highway i

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vision or my vision is

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it will be part of our way of doing

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business

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as we are able to provide

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remote communication

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and remote methods of access and much

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more user-friendly access the librarian

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will no longer be needed to

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identify what types of information to

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collect but more

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they will be needed to collect

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information beyond the factual level

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towards the knowledge level at oai one

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of the things that we've started to do

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is to put in a television classroom at

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each of our member universities

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distances will disappear

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we are linking together students

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here

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at in the workplace at nasa lewis

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research center and instructors and

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students

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at universities all over the state if

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you

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have team members who are located at

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geographically separated distances

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and can be connected so that

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they really feel like they are together

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it's got to help it's just got to add to

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this this ability

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on demand

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you will form dialogue groups

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well beyond anything that group

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philosopher plato ever envisioned as he

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lectured his student aristotle

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i think you see in the world today that

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there's more of a common global

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understanding and maybe a lot of the

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barriers that we have international

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barriers will begin to melt at least i

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so

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the ability to design

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a

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going to free us up with the computer

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freeing up

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the engineer in the sense that his

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wildest thoughts can be tested out in a

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sense of reality will free him almost

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from the rigid

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constraints of of the past

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you may have a theory you may have an

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equation or formula that tells you how

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something is supposed to behave

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but most people i know can't visualize

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formulas very effectively it would be

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very nice to be able to have a system

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for example a truly intelligent computer

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system that allowed you to interact with

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a with the computer capabilities that

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you have both symbolic and numeric and

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graphic

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on a high level it is what you might

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want to really like to do is go into a

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rotating engine if you could in a

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numerical model and perhaps using a

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glove

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or

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your body walking through the engine and

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positioning through it to see a

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graphical image of whether it's pressure

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data temperature data accelerometers

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velocimeters displacement transducers

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whatever phenomenon physical phenomena

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you're trying to see to see a graphical

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image or video image of that data as you

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would move around through the engine i

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envision some kind of holographic type

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workstation where you'll have

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an imaging setup where you'll actually

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see engineering models in the

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three-dimensional form and that that

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might change a little bit exactly

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instead of having a monitor you're gonna

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more have more or less have a stage

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where a lot of these things will be uh

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projected and you might even be able to

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do tests and run them and see the 3d

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holographic image move into animation

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while you're doing some kind of test on

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it we're already seeing some changes in

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that because you can do parametric

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studies with mathematical models you

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very seldom do parametric studies in the

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experiment anymore

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you do experiments very carefully with

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lots of instrumentation and you do a few

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experiments very very well instead of

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doing lots of different experiments

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where you would just change a parameter

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slightly and rerun the experiment you

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also use mathematical models and

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computers to

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predict where the interesting phenomena

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will occur i think that the future of

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computers to predict the performance of

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liquid chemical rocket engine systems

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entire systems from tank to nozzle exit

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is very promising and we'll be able to

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do some amazing technical things at that

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point

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people already are doing

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some some calculations with the direct

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numerical simulation of turbulence and

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transition types of studies for

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navier-stokes equations you'll be able

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to do that for chemically reacting flows

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you'll be able to do very complex

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problems

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one of the projects that's going on at

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lewis right now is this project of

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trying to simulate an entire jet engine

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as it's running we'll have a much better

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handle i think on on

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methods of failure and materials on on

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things that allow us to design things

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design

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objects airplanes spacecraft whatever

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a lot more cutting edge in the sense

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we can make things strong where they

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need to be strong we don't need to put

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excess weight where they don't need to

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be heavy i do see

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developing as time goes on and is

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starting to happen now is a change in

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the way we develop algorithms

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in particular what i'm talking about

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first is that if you're going to specify

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the algorithm explicitly you would be

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writing a

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dealing with a program which is writing

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the program that his programs will be

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writing programs to the extent that

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computing can model and help us

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understand and deal with irrational

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things fuzzy logic neural network

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whatever

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i'm not sure what those will be but i

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think the challenge for computing is

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in modeling what goes on in the world

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computing particularly high performance

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computing offers us a chance of

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investigating those concepts

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another thing that it allows us to do

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which we weren't able to do in the very

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early days

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is to work together

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in teams when we're not living together

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or at least co-located in teams with

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high-speed networking and with powerful

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workstations

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it's possible to carry on a conversation

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among four or five people right through

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the uh the computer

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where ideas can be bounced off each

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other and

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tested

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and with simulation of what's actually

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going to happen

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ideas can be tested

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quickly

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and

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that makes it kind of neat it's it's the

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ability to do things that not only are

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going to be cheaper to do now that we

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couldn't do

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but in ways we can get information that

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we couldn't have gotten

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and so we can make decisions based on

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more information now with the computing

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i i have seen computing change from uh

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from the card program calculator where

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you had those horrible cards to what

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we're having now we put the cards uh in

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a uh in a tray and be picked up in a

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truck from the deb and carried over to

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the 10 by 10 where the computer was and

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then run

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and then transported back one of the

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first big machines we got was the 704

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that had 32k

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words of 36

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words of memory

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and that now i can get on a pc for about

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less than two thousand dollars at that

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point we paid a good deal of money for

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that machine

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and thought we had something really

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great

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we had theories and theories

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always were far ahead of what we were

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capable of doing and in less than five

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years most of the theories were all

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caught up with in terms of the calculate

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the computers as of today i think that

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we're seeing the the seeds of a

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different type of machine that i think

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is going to become

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much more

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predominant in the future and the seeds

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i'm referring to is the infant work in

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neural networks so

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what you're looking for is a symbiosis

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between

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the number crunching capabilities of

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current day computers

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the qualitative decision making

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capability of expert system

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style ai

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and then the intuition

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sort of

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that neurons can capture

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then you have something that

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starts to look like and behave like

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perhaps

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like us humans do with

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one side of our brain being the logical

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decision maker another side uh bringing

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the

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brain that specialize in areas i see a

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parallel computer doing the same sort of

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thing a part of the parallel computer

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would handle the vision part part would

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handle the number crunching part

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it would specialize in different areas i

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think we're going to be moving to arena

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where you won't ask

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questions relative to the speed of a

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machine or its memory but how fast can

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it learn you could almost send him to

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training or to school

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maybe overnight with computer speeds

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and they would become a technician in

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some limited

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area of application the society of these

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technicians working together in various

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fields

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then we have another

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level of

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collective

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pseudo or virtual intelligences

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operating together and where my role is

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in that of course is to utilize them and

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input my creativity which will be very

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hard to duplicate in machines we have

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two eyes two ears and that's all we

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really can hear and see and we basically

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have one line of language in our mind we

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can't listen to six or seven

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conversations at once this machine would

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could and would handle just tons of

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input you will have a

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very capable companion

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not given certain sense but you'll have

356
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a much bigger memory if you ever have

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and recall

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we can be able to make decisions much

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faster than you can

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using millions of facts instead of four

361
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or five that you can juggle in your head

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they may way exceed our ability to

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assimilate and and digest facts

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but

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there is uh really uh

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not even a seed

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of creative intelligence in that

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different thinking machines will will

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actually have different personalities in

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a sense the idea that they're a servant

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that execute just what you've defined

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that era is is going to end and we're

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going to be in a whole different arena

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where they're going to be operating with

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i think some of the biggest problems in

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computing are going to be social and

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political

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uh rather than technical the more stuff

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about yourself that you put online

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the less control you have over it the

381
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more people are going to have access to

382
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it that

383
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maybe you don't want to have access to

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as fast as a society as we have today i

385
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think it's only going to get faster i

386
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think the biggest uh problem that

387
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computers can cause is the

388
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lack of personal contact in the human

389
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touch sometimes the fascination with the

390
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power of the tool steers you away from

391
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actually applying it to solve human

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problems i also have a fear of losing

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craftsmanship and skills i think that as

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we

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have a computer capability that is going

396
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to be able to handle more and more of

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our routine

398
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tasks that one of the incredible

399
00:16:47,030 --> 00:16:45,519
challenges we face

400
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is to

401
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educate kids how to solve problems how

402
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to be creative how to be innovative as

403
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opposed to regurgitating facts and

404
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figures because that's what computers

405
00:17:01,269 --> 00:16:58,560
are going to be able to do best for us

406
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we'll probably have social programs to

407
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make sure that we get

408
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cellular computers to

409
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everyone

410
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so they can have a say in the way the

411
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world operates you know we talked today

412
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about the

413
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potential rift between the

414
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calves and haves not

415
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growing wider

416
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i kind of turned that into the future

417
00:17:25,590 --> 00:17:23,839
concern for the nose and the nose knots

418
00:17:27,510 --> 00:17:25,600
it's one of those equalizer tools i

419
00:17:29,029 --> 00:17:27,520
think that can be useful to a lot of

420
00:17:30,789 --> 00:17:29,039
people to help them

421
00:17:32,870 --> 00:17:30,799
overcome some of the disadvantages they

422
00:17:34,950 --> 00:17:32,880
might have as an individual or a small

423
00:17:36,710 --> 00:17:34,960
group i'm interested mostly in adaptive

424
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technology since it applies to me both

425
00:17:40,310 --> 00:17:39,120
in my professional and personal life my

426
00:17:42,630 --> 00:17:40,320
hopes maybe

427
00:17:44,230 --> 00:17:42,640
like i said in my professional life is

428
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to have things that i can use in the

429
00:17:48,310 --> 00:17:46,400
office so that i can identify

430
00:17:50,390 --> 00:17:48,320
much more than i do now as far as

431
00:17:53,110 --> 00:17:50,400
documents and things like that

432
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and some added additions hopefully being

433
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able to

434
00:17:58,710 --> 00:17:56,559
be compatible with graphical user

435
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interface using speech or maybe even

436
00:18:02,710 --> 00:18:01,200
using voice recognition systems

437
00:18:05,029 --> 00:18:02,720
and for my personal life maybe a

438
00:18:07,510 --> 00:18:05,039
computerized car have a lot more

439
00:18:09,029 --> 00:18:07,520
dynamism a lot more mobility a lot more

440
00:18:10,870 --> 00:18:09,039
adaptability

441
00:18:12,950 --> 00:18:10,880
a lot more independence a lot more

442
00:18:15,990 --> 00:18:12,960
requirement for responsibility for

443
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education for initiative while we have

444
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all of these things they have not

445
00:18:21,270 --> 00:18:19,919
brought brought the world happiness it's

446
00:18:22,789 --> 00:18:21,280
brought it closer together made a

447
00:18:24,870 --> 00:18:22,799
smaller world

448
00:18:27,270 --> 00:18:24,880
we seem not to understand one another

449
00:18:29,110 --> 00:18:27,280
that seems to be quite uh prevalent

450
00:18:30,390 --> 00:18:29,120
computing can only be a tool that's

451
00:18:33,350 --> 00:18:30,400
going to help

452
00:18:35,510 --> 00:18:33,360
bringing information to us i think that

453
00:18:37,190 --> 00:18:35,520
uh

454
00:18:38,870 --> 00:18:37,200
the thing that

455
00:18:39,990 --> 00:18:38,880
humans are

456
00:18:42,950 --> 00:18:40,000
probably

457
00:18:45,750 --> 00:18:42,960
for the next 20 or 30 years i'm going to

458
00:18:48,470 --> 00:18:45,760
always be uh more capable in computers

459
00:18:50,630 --> 00:18:48,480
is of imagination

460
00:18:52,870 --> 00:18:50,640
of conceptualizing and visualizing

461
00:18:54,870 --> 00:18:52,880
things and and

462
00:18:56,789 --> 00:18:54,880
asking the question of

463
00:18:57,909 --> 00:18:56,799
how could this be different or why is

464
00:18:59,430 --> 00:18:57,919
this

465
00:19:01,750 --> 00:18:59,440
and then posing that question the

466
00:19:03,990 --> 00:19:01,760
computer and maybe finding an answer

467
00:19:05,909 --> 00:19:04,000
more and more i think what i see

468
00:19:08,470 --> 00:19:05,919
is that what knowledgeable people are